Who will win the maha battle of 2019

The slugfest between two major political parties for 2019 has opened a lot of uncertainty within the country. Given the brief tenure of authors as political analysts, the authors made an attempt on approaching this exercise as an analytical one, and predict the possibilities for the major political parties. Before we start, authors would like to clarify that this exercise is not done to suit a particular political party. Neither do the authors owe an allegiance to any of the political parties. Let us understand the context of three political forces that will shape 2019, general elections – NDA led by BJP as largest political party, UPA led by Congress as the largest political party and federal front led by TRS and possibly TMC and BJD.

Fight is primarily between the NDA and the UPA. We see NDA and UPA still firming up their strategies

National Democratic Alliance (NDA)

While NDA has witnessed changes in few of its political allies since last elections, there are three major defining factors for NDA:

New friends added in Bihar and North Eastern part of India. BJP should also try to stitch more alliances, particularly in West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. This is imperative, given that NDA is expected to lose a significant portion of wins of last elections, in Hindi heartland

Existing friends departing from NDA, notable ones being TDP and RLSP. The existing ones may also face anti-incumbency in their respective states. As regards Shiv Sena is concerned, they will continue to be a warring faction (due to BJP changing its status in Maharashtra assembly elections) but will still not rock the boat. The reason: NDA gets hurt if Shiv Sena leaves NDA, but Shiv Sena gets hit much more, and the gains will go, in this case to UPA.

More demanding partners within NDA. With the recent setbacks in assembly elections, the partners within NDA have found a bargaining chip in their hands. BJP will most probably have to give them a little more than what they deserve, in order to keep the flock together.

United Progressive Alliance (UPA)

For UPA, there are interestingly similar themes with different issues to handle:

New friends added in the form of JD(S) in Karnataka and TDP in Andhra and Telangana. The outcome of this is a mixed bag. While in Karnataka and some parts of Andhra Pradesh, they seem to have gained strength, Telangana seems to have little impact due to the alliance.

Having existing friends a mixed bag. Mahagathbandhan may not be a potent force. Initially, the alliance leaders were all focused on a single point agenda of removing Modi. This couldn’t have been a binding force. It started showing up as Congress started regaining lost grounds in Hindi heartland. TMC, SP, BSP leaders have their own ambition in terms of the role they want to play at the national level including and up to the prime-miniterial candidate. As Congress becomes a more potent force within the Mahagathbandhan, regional parties have started feeling uneasy with Rahul Gandhi potentially being projected as a future prime minister

More demanding partners within the UPA. With Congress needing to stitch regional alliances, regional parties have realized that they can bargain better as Congress aims to topple the Modi government at the national stage and will need all the alliances to go through for this to happen. This is becoming more and more evident with back of the room lobbying and negotiations which keep on getting reported.

In addition, certain parties, that are currently not a part of the UPA for e.g. Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, are expected to form an alliance or understanding amongst them. Hence, they are considered to be a part of the UPA. The only party which could have gone with UPA, but has been considered in the Federal front is the Aam Admi Party (AAP). Given their desire to uproot BJP, they would go ahead with UPA, however, ideologically they will struggle to align with the UPA. Consequently AAP is retained as a part of the Federal front.

Our estimation on 2019 outcomes

Please refer to methodology section, provided in the appendix of this article. We have used historical data of last two elections of Loksabha and last assembly election data. We have also used adjustment factor for national vs. assembly elections. We expect tail wind for Modi in states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh type of states. Success of 2014 will definitely not see a repeat in 2019 for the NDA but despite, their recent losses, NDA is not expected to lose significantly. We have also made adjustment for headwinds against NDA in the states like Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh etc. where their losses will go to different parties.

Below is our estimated outcome for 2019 elections:

• NDA is expected to be tantalizingly close to the majority mark but may not be able to cross the line. They will need at least 25 seats from the major federal front parties to collaborate

• To the best extent of our understanding, UPA will not be able to make a government. They will have to consider promoting a Federal front, that will eventually form the government.

NDA needs to aggressively protect its turf

NDA, being a challenger in 2014 elections, was able to leverage the anti-government sentiment to stitch multiple alliances of smaller parties. BJP president Amit Shah is a wonderful strategist. We believe that over and above what is being done, NDA needs to do few additional things. In addition to BJP trying to steer the ship on its own, now is the time to provide due respect to the smaller parties and do three things:

Strengthen alliances: Agree on minimum common agenda. In doing so, contentious issues like Ram mandir, making triple talaq a punishable offence and fringe elements exhibiting lack of tolerance have to take a back seat. Finding smaller parties, more particularly in East India and South India will be important. A difference of 4-5 alliances can make a difference of 5-10 loksabha seats.

Policy interventions: NDA still has few months till the preliminary budget of 2019. NDA will be able to influence public opinion by championing the cause of voter segments.

Strong media communication: We believe that NDA has been weak in their media communication in the last one year. Issues that can be considered achievements of NDA are not highlighted enough. Having said that, there are genuine issues on which the NDA needs to educate the masses. For e.g. we believe that biggest issue in this market is unemployment. Demonetization and GST has indeed slowed down the employment creation. NDA needs to explain the importance of these steps and accept that these have temporarily resulted in short term losses , but for the gain in long run. Similarly policies pertaining to management of agrarian distress, dalit upliftment etc. need to have more proactive outreach through intelligent use of media. The media outreach has to be more preemptive, rather than reacting to opposition attacks on the government.

UPA needs to sharpen its attack

Public had huge expectations from NDA. There definitely is an expectation mismatch, resulting in disappointment with the ruling coaliton. UPA has been able to successfully leverage the negative sentiment of masses. UPA needs to further improve this by doing the following:

Stitch broader alliances: We expected individual aspirations of few members within federal front, UPA constituents and other parties, coming in the way of forming a nationwide maha gathbandhan. As an alternative to a common objective of “defeat modi” a more progressive and action-oriented memorandum which is devoid of selfish political aspirations would go a long way in helping UPA consolidate and increase its base. For this to happen, the Congress as leader of UPA, needs to increase its handshakes with the regional parties and be ready to sacrifice for them. This will result in more inclusive and accommodative approach to alliances.

Continue media outreach: While the Congress has successfully leveraged the negative sentiment in Indian public towards government ; so far it has seemed to work. They need to continue highlighting the shortcomings of the present government and connect more and more with the masses.

Notwithstanding the uncertainty of the outcome, the 2019 elections will see a lot of firepower from all political parties in order to gain strong foothold in their respective battle grounds. All we hope for is a strong government at the center. That seems less likely at this stage.

Views of the authors are personal.
This article, published, is not linked in any way to a commercial assignment handled by i3Consulting Private Limited.

About the authors

Abhishek Gupta
Abhishek is Managing director of i3Consulting. He has expertise in setting up analytics and CRM capabilities for various organizations. He has provided strategy advisory on risk and customer management for banks, insurance, Telecom and governments.

Abhijit Mukherjee
Abhijit works as a director with i3Consulting. He has more than 17 years of consulting experience of working with organizations in the area of data analytics, market entry strategy and organizational strategy.

Sarthak Agarwal
Sarthak works as an associate with i3Consulting. He has specialized in organizational performance improvement, operations analytics and Forensics.

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